MLB / mlb / live
CIN 12 / TBR 6CINCincinnati Reds57%
TBRTampa Bay Rays43%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase Burns
Model pickCIN moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterSteven Matz
CIN57%ML -110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
TBR43%ML -108
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap7.2 pts
Chase Burns has no season stats; Matz ERA 7.20 in 5 IP is tiny sample. Model total 9.30 vs market 7.5 is a 1.8-run gap flagged as structural miss. Without Burns data and Matz's noise, no defensible view.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -108CIN / TBR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-179)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total