MLB / mlb / live
CIN 12 / TBR 6CINCincinnati Reds57%
TBRTampa Bay Rays43%
at Tropicana Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase Burns
Model pickCIN moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
TBRHome starterSteven Matz
CIN57%ML -110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
TBR43%ML -108
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.9 pts
Chase Burns has no season stats; Matz ERA 7.20 in 5 IP is tiny sample. Model total 9.30 vs market 7.5 is a 1.8-run gap flagged as structural miss. Without Burns data and Matz's noise, no defensible view.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -108CIN / TBR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-179)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total