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SFG 6 / STL 5
SFGSan Francisco Giants39%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals61%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterAnthony MolinaConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline61%Model 20260914_auto
STLHome starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
SFG39%ML +135
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
STL61%ML -160

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.7 pts

Model (61.4%) and market (59.7%) essentially agree on STL, so the side is defensible without conviction. The total is the divergence: model 9.59 vs market 8.0. Two starters with ERAs above 5 (Liberatore 5.53, 1.49 WHIP; Molina 5.24 in only 22.3 IP) at a 1.034 park supports a mild over, but Molina's 5-start sample and SFG's listed .388 OPS look unreliable, so I won't chase the model's full gap.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Anthony MolinaSFG starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 bovada / U -121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.523%over
O 5.512%over
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 fanduel / U -160 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+135 / -160SFG / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -106
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total