MLB / mlb / live
WSN 9 / STL 1WSNWashington Nationals44%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals56%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterCade CavalliConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline56%Model 20260914_auto
STLHome starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
WSN44%ML -111
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
STL56%ML -106
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.4
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Cade CavalliWSN starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -108 draftkings / U +105 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -125 fanatics / U +107 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.580%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.580%under
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-111 / -106WSN / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-178)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total