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PIT 6 / STL 2
PITPittsburgh Pirates34%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals66%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterLake BacharConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline66%Model 20260824_auto
STLHome starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
PIT34%ML +105
Base model probability66%Moneyline only
STL66%ML -124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.4 pts

STL's .812 OPS and 4.9 RPG dwarf Pittsburgh's 2.5 RPG and .710 OPS, and Leahy's 3.13 ERA over 126 IP is solid, so the side is defensible. But the model's 65.6% vs market's 53.3% is a 12-point gap that market pricing at only -120 suggests is overdone. Model's 8.71 total sits well above the 8.0 line despite a weak PIT lineup facing Bachar's 1.11 WHIP; take the under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Lake BacharPIT starter / away
Projected K2.7Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.575%over
O 2.551%under
O 3.529%under
O 4.515%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -131 draftkings / U +120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.575%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -124PIT / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -109 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total