MLB / mlb / live
CHW 3 / STL 7CHWChicago White Sox44%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals56%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony KayConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
STLHome starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
CHW44%ML -106
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
STL56%ML -112
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betonlineag / U +115 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%under
O 3.585%under
O 4.572%under
O 5.557%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-106 / -112CHW / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-184)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -116 / U -104
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total