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BAL 5 / STL 7
BALBaltimore Orioles49%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals51%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
STLHome starterGordon GraceffoConfirmed
BAL49%ML -128
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
STL51%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.1 pts

Home starter is TBD with fallback stats (3.86 ERA, 6.2 K/9 attributed to a placeholder), so the model's 54.9% on STL against a market implying 46.7% rests on unresolved input. Rogers is the only known quantity (4.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). Slight lean to the market side, no conviction; total pass with one rotation slot unknown at a mild hitter's park (1.034).

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 fanduel / U +114 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Gordon GraceffoSTL starter / home
Projected K2.5Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.571%over
O 2.545%over
O 3.525%over
O 4.511%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-128 / +110BAL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -107 / U -114
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total