MLB / mlb / live
BAL 8 / STL 7BALBaltimore Orioles46%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals54%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterKyle BradishConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
STLHome starterMichael McGreevyConfirmed
BAL46%ML -112
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
STL54%ML -105
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -104 fanduel / U -116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Michael McGreevySTL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -147 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-112 / -105BAL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -107 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total