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BAL 13 / STL 1
BALBaltimore Orioles43%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals57%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterChris BassittConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline57%Model 20260824_auto
STLHome starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
BAL43%ML +110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
STL57%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.2 pts

STL's offense is the clear comparison: 5.6 RPG and .812 OPS against BAL's 4.0 and .662, with Bassitt carrying a 5.08 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Model's 59.4% sits only ~5 pts above the market's 54.2%, so no real conflict. Home starter is TBD/fallback, which caps confidence and makes the 9.10 total shaky, but Busch at PF 1.034 plus the offense gap still leans over 8.5.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Chris BassittBAL starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betonlineag / U +110 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.543%over
O 4.525%over
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -118 fanduel / U -105 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -125BAL / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -107 / U -113
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total