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PHI 6 / STL 5
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies47%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
STLHome starterHunter DobbinsConfirmed
PHI47%ML -118
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
STL53%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.5 pts

Painter's 6.48 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over 75 IP is a meaningful gap on Dobbins' 3.60 ERA, and STL is getting a plus price (+107) as the pitching-comparison side. The mismatch flag stems from odd team offense inputs (PHI 5.5 RPG paired with a .570 OPS), so I weight the starters more. Busch at 1.034 PF plus Painter's contact profile nudges me slightly over 9.0.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andrew PainterPHI starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +112 draftkings / U -136 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.528%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Hunter DobbinsSTL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 bovada / U -105 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-118 / +100PHI / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-161)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total