MLB / mlb / live
CHC 2 / STL 3CHCChicago Cubs54%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals46%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
STLHome starterDustin MayConfirmed
CHC54%ML -109
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
STL46%ML -109
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 fanatics / U -132 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Dustin MaySTL starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +107 betrivers / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-109 / -109CHC / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-177)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -116 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total