sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CHC 10 / STL 2
CHCChicago Cubs54%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals46%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterColin ReaConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
STLHome starterMichael McGreevyConfirmed
CHC54%ML -110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
STL46%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.8 pts

STL starter is TBD (fallback data), making both sides and total unreliable. CHC has strong offense (6.4 RPG, .694 OPS) vs STL's weak 3.5 RPG. Market agrees at -111 (implied 52.6%), model at 55.2%. Rea's 4.85 ERA serviceable. Defer to market given pitcher uncertainty.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Colin ReaCHC starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betmgm / U -125 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Michael McGreevySTL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -110CHC / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total