sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterReynaldo LópezProbable
Model pickSTL moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
STLHome starterMatthew LiberatoreProbable
ATL47%ML -120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
STL53%ML +100

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.9 pts

Model favors STL 52.7% vs market ATL 52.9%—essentially a toss-up. Liberatore's 5.34 ERA in 87.7 IP is concerning against ATL's 6.2 RPG offense. López's 3.18 ERA in 56.7 IP gives ATL the pitching comparison. Model total 9.08 vs market 8.5 suggests over lean. offense_defense_mismatch flags model picking worse team.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Reynaldo LópezATL starter / away
Projected K3.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%
O 2.569%
O 3.549%
O 4.530%
O 5.517%
O 6.58%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / home
Projected K4.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.511%
O 8.55%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-120 / +100ATL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O +100 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total