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ATL 1 / STL 4
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterReynaldo LópezConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
STLHome starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
ATL47%ML -108
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
STL53%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.5 pts

Model favors STL 52.7% vs market ATL 52.9%—essentially a toss-up. Liberatore's 5.34 ERA in 87.7 IP is concerning against ATL's 6.2 RPG offense. López's 3.18 ERA in 56.7 IP gives ATL the pitching comparison. Model total 9.08 vs market 8.5 suggests over lean. offense_defense_mismatch flags model picking worse team.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Reynaldo LópezATL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 betmgm / U -114 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +101 draftkings / U -113 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-108 / -110ATL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-177)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total