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CIN 4 / STL 2
CINCincinnati Reds54%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals46%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterRhett LowderConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
STLHome starterDustin MayConfirmed
CIN54%ML +124
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
STL46%ML -145

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.5 pts

Model likes CIN 54.3% but market has STL -159 (60.2% implied). Market disagrees by 6 ppts and I defer to Pinnacle here. Lowder's 5.75 ERA in 72 IP is poor; May's 4.78 in 98 IP is mediocre but better. STL's .812 OPS vs CIN's .629 OPS is a 183-point gap favoring the home side. Model total 8.39 vs market 8.0 is close; neutral park, weak pitching argues over.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 draftkings / U -162 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Dustin MaySTL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -125 bovada / U +110 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+124 / -145CIN / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total