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MIL 8 / STL 4
MILMilwaukee Brewers47%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
STLHome starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
MIL47%ML -130
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
STL53%ML +110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.0 pts

Market favors MIL at 55.2% implied, model has STL at 52.7% - a modest 2.5pp gap. MIL's superior record (58-34 vs 48-43) and elite .972 OPS support the market view. Henderson's 11.74 K/9 in limited sample (23 IP) suggests upside, though Pallante's 95 IP is more reliable. Model total of 8.38 vs market 8.5 is tight; lean under given decent pitching on both sides.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 betonlineag / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 betmgm / U +112 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-130 / +110MIL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total