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MIL 4 / STL 3
MILMilwaukee Brewers47%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterShane DrohanConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
STLHome starterDustin MayConfirmed
MIL47%ML -120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
STL53%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.7 pts

Market favors MIL at 52% implied, model has STL at 52.7% — a near coin flip. MIL's superior record (54-33 vs 47-39) and .972 OPS vs .812 argues for the road favorite. May's 4.8 ERA in 84 IP is exploitable. Model's 8.65 total vs market 8.0 suggests over lean given offensive comparison.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane DrohanMIL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +126 fanduel / U -156 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Dustin MaySTL starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 betrivers / U -141 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.542%over
O 4.524%over
O 5.512%over
O 6.56%over
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +100MIL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total