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MIA 1 / STL 2
MIAMiami Marlins48%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals52%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
STLHome starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
MIA48%ML +104
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
STL52%ML -125

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.4 pts

Model total of 7.99 is 1.5 runs below market's 9.5, triggering total_far_from_market. Phillips' 3.09 ERA over 58 IP is solid; Leahy's 4.24 ERA and 1.51 WHIP are mediocre but not disastrous. STL's 1.0 RPG is suspiciously low for 80 games; MIA at 1.4 RPG also seems compressed. Model and market converge on side (~52% vs 54%), no comparison. Lean under on total given model-market gap and pitcher matchup.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +124 betonlineag / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%under
O 2.560%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betrivers / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+104 / -125MIA / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -118 / U -102
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total