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ARI 9 / STL 4
ARIArizona Diamondbacks58%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMitch BrattConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
STLHome starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
ARI58%ML -102
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
STL42%ML -116

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#13
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap9.8 pts

Away pitcher is fallback data (Bratt has no season stats); model picking ARI at 58% vs market's ~48% STL. Offense-defense mismatch flag fires (ARI worse record, worse offense 1.8 RPG vs 2.6). Missing reliable pitcher data plus structural disagreement on inferior team makes this unpickable.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.7
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mitch BrattARI starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.557%over
O 3.535%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 fanatics / U -142 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-102 / -116ARI / STL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total