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ARI 10 / STL 6
ARIArizona Diamondbacks54%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals46%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
STLHome starterMichael McGreevyConfirmed
ARI54%ML +102
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
STL46%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.2 pts

Model has ARI favored but market leans STL. McGreevy's 2.92 ERA in 108 IP is legitimate; Gallen's 6.34 ERA is concerning. Model's 9.27 total is 1.77 runs above market—classic structural miss. ARI's 6.6 RPG looks like offensive prowess but pairs with weak .564 OPS, signaling context/park inflation. Lean STL, strong under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zac GallenARI starter / away
Projected K3.1Did not start / void
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 betmgm / U -103 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%
O 2.559%
O 3.538%
O 4.521%
O 5.510%
O 6.54%
O 7.52%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Michael McGreevySTL starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 draftkings / U -136 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+102 / -120ARI / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+169)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -119 / U -101
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total