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ARI 4 / STL 3
ARIArizona Diamondbacks53%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals47%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
STLHome starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
ARI53%ML -108
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
STL47%ML -110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.6 pts

Model has ARI 53.4%, market has STL 51.4% — tight split. Rodriguez (2.45 ERA, 88 IP) is pitching well vs Leahy (4.63 ERA, 70 IP). offense_defense_mismatch flag fires but ARI's pitching advantage justifies the model lean. Total: model 9.23 vs market 8.5 suggests over, but STL averages only 3.4 RPG. Lean ARI on pitching comparison.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -143 draftkings / U +120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kyle LeahySTL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betmgm / U +114 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.556%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-108 / -110ARI / STL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total