MLB / mlb / live
CIN 3 / STL 5CINCincinnati Reds55%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals45%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterRhett Lowder
Model pickCIN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMichael McGreevy
CIN55%ML +128
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
STL45%ML -152
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.1 pts
Model favors CIN 55.2% but market has STL at 56.6%. McGreevy's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is extreme small sample noise, yet he's still a live arm at home. CIN's offense is weak (.629 OPS). Model's total of 9.15 sits well under market 9.5, suggesting under value. Offense-defense mismatch flag fires but CIN road struggles may explain model's contrarian take.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+128 / -152CIN / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total