MLB / mlb / live
CIN 3 / STL 5CINCincinnati Reds55%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals45%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterRhett Lowder
Model pickCIN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMichael McGreevy
CIN55%ML +128
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
STL45%ML -152
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.9 pts
Model favors CIN 55.2% but market has STL at 56.6%. McGreevy's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is extreme small sample noise, yet he's still a live arm at home. CIN's offense is weak (.629 OPS). Model's total of 9.15 sits well under market 9.5, suggesting under value. Offense-defense mismatch flag fires but CIN road struggles may explain model's contrarian take.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -152CIN / STL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total