MLB / mlb / live
TEX 2 / STL 1TEXTexas Rangers52%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals48%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterJacob deGrom
Model pickTEX moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMichael McGreevy
TEX52%ML -130
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
STL48%ML +108
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.9 pts
deGrom has null stats across all fields (IP, ERA, K/9, WHIP) despite data_quality='full'—this is effectively missing data. McGreevy shows 10 GS but only 6.0 IP total, which is impossible and signals data corruption. Model predicts 9.33 runs vs market 7.5, but pitcher inputs are unreliable. Cannot form defensible view on either side or total with corrupted starter data.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-130 / +108TEX / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total