MLB / mlb / live
TEX 7 / STL 4TEXTexas Rangers40%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals60%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterNathan Eovaldi
Model pickSTL moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterDustin May
TEX40%ML -110
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
STL60%ML -109
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.4 pts
Model has STL at 60% while market is coin flip. Both starters have ERAs north of 9.00 in tiny samples (4-4.7 IP), making these fallback-quality starts despite 'full' labels. Model's 9.0 total vs market 7.0 is a 2-run gap—likely overweighting STL's short-window offense. Fade the model, lean TEX and under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -109TEX / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -111
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total