MLB / mlb / live
CHC 5 / STL 6CHCChicago Cubs59%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals41%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterShota Imanaga
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterAndre Pallante
CHC59%ML -132
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
STL41%ML +112
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.6 pts
Model has CHC 58.6%, market 56.0% — close alignment. Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in 5.0 IP is extremely small sample (likely 1-2 bad outings). Pallante missing all rate stats raises data quality concerns. Model's 9.2 total vs market 8.0 is a 1.2-run gap; Busch slight hitter park (1.034) and missing pitcher data suggest leaning over cautiously.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-132 / +112CHC / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total