MLB / mlb / live
CHC 5 / STL 6CHCChicago Cubs59%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals41%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterShota Imanaga
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterAndre Pallante
CHC59%ML -132
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
STL41%ML +112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.0 pts
Model has CHC 58.6%, market 56.0% — close alignment. Imanaga's 7.20 ERA in 5.0 IP is extremely small sample (likely 1-2 bad outings). Pallante missing all rate stats raises data quality concerns. Model's 9.2 total vs market 8.0 is a 1.2-run gap; Busch slight hitter park (1.034) and missing pitcher data suggest leaning over cautiously.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-132 / +112CHC / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total