MLB / mlb / live
PIT 6 / STL 2PITPittsburgh Pirates42%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals58%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBraxton Ashcraft
Model pickSTL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterDustin May
PIT42%ML -120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
STL58%ML +102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.6 pts
Model has STL 58% vs market 45%, a 13-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Dustin May's 13.5 ERA in 4.0 IP is catastrophically small sample; Ashcraft has null stats suggesting extreme data issues. Market is pricing PIT as favorite despite worse record, likely knows more about pitcher reality. Pass total with missing Ashcraft data.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +102PIT / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -106
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total