MLB / mlb / live
PIT 7 / STL 0PITPittsburgh Pirates55%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals45%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterCarmen Mlodzinski
Model pickPIT moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMichael McGreevy
PIT55%ML -103
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
STL45%ML -115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.5 pts
McGreevy's 6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA is a 10-start mirage—unbelievable rate stats on minimal volume. Model picks PIT at 55.2% vs market 47.9%, likely overweighting McGreevy's small sample. Total_far_from_market flag fires: model 9.05 vs market 7.5 is a 1.55-run gap. Park factor 1.034 is neutral. I lean over 7.5 given PIT's 5.0 RPG, but pass on side with this pitcher uncertainty.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-103 / -115PIT / STL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -112 / U -107
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total