MLB / mlb / live
PIT 7 / STL 0PITPittsburgh Pirates55%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals45%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterCarmen Mlodzinski
Model pickPIT moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMichael McGreevy
PIT55%ML -103
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
STL45%ML -115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.3 pts
McGreevy's 6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA is a 10-start mirage—unbelievable rate stats on minimal volume. Model picks PIT at 55.2% vs market 47.9%, likely overweighting McGreevy's small sample. Total_far_from_market flag fires: model 9.05 vs market 7.5 is a 1.55-run gap. Park factor 1.034 is neutral. I lean over 7.5 given PIT's 5.0 RPG, but pass on side with this pitcher uncertainty.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-103 / -115PIT / STL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -112 / U -107
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total