MLB / mlb / live
PIT 6 / STL 9PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals54%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterMitch Keller
Model pickSTL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMatthew Liberatore
PIT46%ML -106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
STL54%ML -113
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.6 pts
Both pitchers show extreme small-sample noise: Liberatore 1.8 ERA in 5.0 IP (2 starts?), Keller 0.0 ERA in 6.0 IP. These are not real skill levels. Model's 9.13 total vs market 8.0 is a 1.13-run gap, but without meaningful pitcher data I can't justify either side. Ace_matchup flag is misleading given tiny samples. Pass.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-106 / -113PIT / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-179)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -106
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total