MLB / mlb / live
PIT 6 / STL 9PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals54%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterMitch Keller
Model pickSTL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMatthew Liberatore
PIT46%ML -106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
STL54%ML -113
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.8 pts
Both pitchers show extreme small-sample noise: Liberatore 1.8 ERA in 5.0 IP (2 starts?), Keller 0.0 ERA in 6.0 IP. These are not real skill levels. Model's 9.13 total vs market 8.0 is a 1.13-run gap, but without meaningful pitcher data I can't justify either side. Ace_matchup flag is misleading given tiny samples. Pass.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-106 / -113PIT / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-179)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -106
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total