MLB / mlb / live
KCR 4 / STL 5KCRKansas City Royals53%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals47%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterMichael Wacha
Model pickKCR moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterDustin May
KCR53%ML -106
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
STL47%ML -112
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.3 pts
Dustin May's 13.50 ERA over 4.0 IP is extreme small-sample noise; Wacha's 0.00 ERA over 6.0 IP equally so. Both starters have ~10 total IP, making this a coin flip on moneyline. Model at 53.2% vs market 51.2% is effectively flat. Total: model 9.18 vs market 8.5 in neutral park; lean over given STL's .812 OPS offense.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-106 / -112KCR / STL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total