MLB / mlb / live
KCR 4 / STL 5KCRKansas City Royals53%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals47%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterMichael Wacha
Model pickKCR moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterDustin May
KCR53%ML -106
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
STL47%ML -112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.8 pts
Dustin May's 13.50 ERA over 4.0 IP is extreme small-sample noise; Wacha's 0.00 ERA over 6.0 IP equally so. Both starters have ~10 total IP, making this a coin flip on moneyline. Model at 53.2% vs market 51.2% is effectively flat. Total: model 9.18 vs market 8.5 in neutral park; lean over given STL's .812 OPS offense.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-106 / -112KCR / STL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total