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MIL 4 / STL 3
MILMilwaukee Brewers50%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals50%

at Busch Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
STLHome starterMatt SvansonConfirmed
MIL50%ML -212
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability35%Selected moneyline pick
STL50%ML +177

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap15.4 pts

Model has STL 53.5% vs market 50.5% — essentially a coin flip. Sproat's 21.00 ERA in 3.0 IP is meaningless noise (1 bad appearance), but his presence makes the model's 9.21 total prediction unreliable. Market total of 7.5 is far more credible. Lean MIL on the toss-up moneyline, under on total where model clearly overshot.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Brandon SproatMIL starter / away
Projected K3.0Did not start / void
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%
O 2.557%
O 3.536%
O 4.519%
O 5.59%
O 6.54%
O 7.51%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Andre PallanteSTL starter / home
Projected K3.0Did not start / void
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%
O 2.557%
O 3.535%
O 4.519%
O 5.59%
O 6.54%
O 7.51%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-212 / +177MIL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -113 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total