MLB / mlb / live
MIL 6 / STL 2MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals54%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon Sproat
Model pickSTL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterAndre Pallante
MIL46%ML -106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
STL54%ML -110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.8 pts
Model at 53.6% aligns with market's 50.7% on STL. Sproat's 21.00 ERA in 3 IP is tiny sample noise but MIL offense leads at .972 OPS. Model total 9.19 vs market 8.0 suggests over, though 1.2-run gap warrants caution.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-106 / -110MIL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total