MLB / mlb / live
MIL 3 / STL 6MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals58%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterChad Patrick
Model pickSTL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterKyle Leahy
MIL42%ML -118
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
STL58%ML +100
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.5 pts
Model has STL 57.5% vs market 48%. Chad Patrick shows 2.08 ERA in just 4.1 IP—extreme small sample noise. Kyle Leahy's missing season stats are a major data hole. Market_disagreement_large flag fires; Pinnacle likely knows something structural about Leahy that model doesn't. Pass on side, lean over 8.5 given 1.034 park factor and solid team offense (.812/.972 OPS).
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-118 / +100MIL / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -104
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total