MLB / mlb / live
LAD 4 / STL 1LADLos Angeles Dodgers42%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals58%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterJustin Wrobleski
Model pickSTL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterDustin May
LAD42%ML -147
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
STL58%ML +124
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.9 pts
Wrobleski has null stats across all fields—no ERA, no IP, no K/9. May's 13.5 ERA in 4.0 IP is catastrophically small sample. Model likes STL at 57.5% vs market's 42.6%, a 15-point gap flagged as large disagreement. With one pitcher's data completely missing and the other barely pitched, I can't justify overruling the market. Lean under 9.5 given data chaos.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-147 / +124LAD / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total