MLB / mlb / live
LAD 2 / STL 7LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals45%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterEmmet Sheehan
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMatthew Liberatore
LAD55%ML -179
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
STL45%ML +150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.4 pts
Model likes LAD at 55% vs market's 62%. Sheehan's 10.8 ERA in 3.1 IP is tiny sample noise (16.2 K/9 suggests talent). Liberatore's 1.8 ERA also small sample (5.0 IP, 1.8 WHIP). Market total 8.0 vs model 9.2 is wide but STL offense (5.2 RPG, .812 OPS) runs hot at home. Lean LAD, lean over.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-179 / +150LAD / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-113)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -104 / U -118
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total