MLB / mlb / live
LAD 2 / STL 3LADLos Angeles Dodgers45%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals55%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterRoki Sasaki
Model pickSTL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMichael McGreevy
LAD45%ML -136
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
STL55%ML +115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.0 pts
Sasaki's stats are completely missing (null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP). McGreevy's 6.0 IP over 10 starts averages 0.6 IP per start—clearly incomplete data. Model shows 54.7% STL vs market's 44.8%, triggering large disagreement flag, but with both pitcher profiles this broken, I can't justify either side. This is a data quality issue, not an analyzable matchup.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-136 / +115LAD / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total