MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / STL 2SEASeattle Mariners46%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals54%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterEmerson Hancock
Model pickSTL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMichael McGreevy
SEA46%ML -139
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
STL54%ML +117
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.5 pts
Both pitchers show 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP (10 starts listed but only 6.0 IP each suggests massive data quality issue). Model sees STL 53.5%, market implies SEA 54.9% — 8+ point gap triggers disagreement flag but neither view is credible given pitcher stats are clearly incomplete. Ace matchup flag fires on paper but we lack real season data. Pass entirely.
Large model-market gapace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-139 / +117SEA / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total