MLB / mlb / live
SEA 11 / STL 9SEASeattle Mariners42%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals58%
at Busch Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryan Woo
Model pickSTL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
STLHome starterMatthew Liberatore
SEA42%ML -149
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
STL58%ML +123
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.5 pts
Model has STL 58% but market has SEA -142 (59%). Bryan Woo's elite peripherals (13.5 K/9, 0.83 WHIP in 6 IP) plus Liberatore's weak Ks (3.6 K/9, 1.8 WHIP) suggest SEA comparison. Model's 9.32 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.8-run gap—ace matchup flag fired but Liberatore isn't an ace. Lean SEA, under 7.5.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-149 / +123SEA / STL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total