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LAA 7 / SEA 5
LAALos Angeles Angels39%
SEASeattle Mariners61%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterReid DetmersConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline61%Model 20260921_auto
SEAHome starterBryce MillerConfirmed
LAA39%ML -104
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
SEA61%ML -115

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.4 pts

Model's 61.2% on SEA is 8+ points above the market's 52.9% without a clear justification; Detmers (3.47 ERA, 10.26 K/9, 1.05 WHIP) is the better starter, so I'll only lean home at near pick-em pricing. The 8.18-run total is the bigger miss: T-Mobile at 0.855 park factor with both offenses under 4.0 RPG argues firmly under 6.5.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.1
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Reid DetmersLAA starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +102 draftkings / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Bryce MillerSEA starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +123 draftkings / U -141 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 6.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-104 / -115LAA / SEA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-200)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -115 / U -104
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total