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HOU 7 / SEA 0
HOUHouston Astros36%
SEASeattle Mariners64%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterCristian JavierConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline64%Model 20260921_auto
SEAHome starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
HOU36%ML +112
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
SEA64%ML -134

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.5 pts

Gilbert (3.69 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.81 K/9) is a clear comparison over Javier (5.31 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), and HOU's 2.8 RPG / .695 OPS offense is the weaker side. Model's 64% sits modestly above the market's 57.7%, so the side is defensible. The 8.29 total is the real miss: T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor plus Gilbert argues under the 7.0 line.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cristian JavierHOU starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 fanduel / U -130 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.6Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +121 draftkings / U -149 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%under
O 4.577%under
O 5.563%under
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.523%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+112 / -134HOU / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total