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OAK 6 / SEA 2
OAKOakland Athletics40%
SEASeattle Mariners60%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterJeffrey SpringsConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline60%Model 20260831_auto
SEAHome starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
OAK40%ML +196
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
SEA60%ML -238

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.2 pts

Market implies 68.5% on Seattle vs the model's 60.4%; here I side with the market. Springs' 6.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP is a clear downgrade from Kirby's 4.19, and T-Mobile at 0.855 park factor suppresses run scoring. The model's 9.24-run total sits well above the 8.0 line in an extreme pitcher park, so under is the read.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jeffrey SpringsOAK starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +127 draftkings / U -154 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +104 betrivers / U -115 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+196 / -238OAK / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total