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PHI 6 / SEA 0
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
SEASeattle Mariners47%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260824_auto
SEAHome starterBryan WooConfirmed
PHI53%ML -138
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SEA47%ML +118

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.6 pts

Model's 9.17-run total is 2.7 above the 6.5 market line, unjustifiable with T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor and Luzardo at 3.23 ERA, 11.19 K/9. Clear under. On the side, model (53.2% PHI) and market (54.8% PHI) agree, so no independent comparison; Woo's 1.08 WHIP keeps it close. PHI's 6.0 RPG against a .570 OPS looks internally inconsistent, so only a lean.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K8.0Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -132 fanduel / U +135 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.579%over
O 6.567%over
O 7.554%over
O 8.540%over
O 9.529%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Bryan WooSEA starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +136 betonlineag / U -150 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-138 / +118PHI / SEA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total