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PHI 2 / SEA 9
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies49%
SEASeattle Mariners51%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterZack WheelerConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
SEAHome starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
PHI49%ML -120
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
SEA51%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.0 pts

Wheeler (2.92 ERA, 10.77 K/9) edges Gilbert (3.35, 9.4) and PHI is 73-58 vs 62-69, so the model's slight SEA tilt looks like park-factor overweighting. PHI's listed 6.5 RPG against a .570 OPS is internally inconsistent, so I'll stay light. Model's 7.82 total ignores an ace matchup in a 0.855 park; under 6.5 is the cleaner side.

offense defense mismatchextreme parkace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.6
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +125 draftkings / U -145 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 7.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.579%under
O 5.565%under
O 6.551%under
O 7.537%under
O 8.525%under
O 9.516%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.7Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +118 fanduel / U -140 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 6.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.565%under
O 6.550%under
O 7.536%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +100PHI / SEA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total