sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CHC 4 / SEA 5
CHCChicago Cubs48%
SEASeattle Mariners52%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline52%Model 20260817_auto
SEAHome starterKade AndersonConfirmed
CHC48%ML +100
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
SEA52%ML -118

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.0 pts

Model and market both land at 51.6% on SEA, so no comparison there. Peterson's 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 112.1 IP is the one real lever for Seattle, but Kade Anderson's stats are a fallback so the home side is unresolved. The 9.00 model total versus a 7.5 line at T-Mobile (PF 0.855) looks like a structural miss; under is the cleaner position.

pitcher data fallbacktotal far from marketextreme parkoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -138 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Kade AndersonSEA starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -118CHC / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total