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TBR 3 / SEA 2
TBRTampa Bay Rays52%
SEASeattle Mariners48%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterCasey LeguminaConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
SEAHome starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
TBR52%ML +115
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
SEA48%ML -137

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.2 pts

Model's 8.83-run total is nearly two runs above the 7.0 market line despite T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor and two starters at 3.76 and 3.63 ERA — a structural miss on park, so under. Moneyline is a coin flip (model 52.4% TBR, market 51.9% SEA); slight nod to Tampa on the 69-46 record and 3.8 RPG vs Seattle's 3.0, but no real comparison.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Griffin JaxTBR starter / away
Projected K6.0Did not start / void
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 bovada / U -111 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.583%
O 4.570%
O 5.554%
O 6.539%
O 7.526%
O 8.516%
O 9.59%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

George KirbySEA starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 betonlineag / U +122 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%under
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+115 / -137TBR / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total