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TBR 2 / SEA 1
TBRTampa Bay Rays52%
SEASeattle Mariners48%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterDrew RasmussenConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
SEAHome starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
TBR52%ML -102
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
SEA48%ML -115

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.6 pts

Model's 9.46 total is 2.5 runs above the 7.0 market line in a 0.855 park factor venue with Gilbert (3.46 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) opposing Rasmussen (2.91 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) — a clear structural miss on park and ace matchup. Under is the confident side. Moneyline is near a coin flip (market 52.5% home vs model 52% away); slight comparison to Gilbert at home.

total far from marketextreme parkace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.5
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Drew RasmussenTBR starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betonlineag / U +110 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +126 fanduel / U -156 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.561%over
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-102 / -115TBR / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -114 / U -1
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total