MLB / mlb / live
TBR 4 / SEA 1TBRTampa Bay Rays58%
SEASeattle Mariners42%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterIan SeymourConfirmed
Model pickTBR moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
SEAHome starterEmerson HancockConfirmed
TBR58%ML -107
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA42%ML -110
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Ian SeymourTBR starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -108 fanduel / U -101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Emerson HancockSEA starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 betonlineag / U -127 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-107 / -110TBR / SEA moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +103 / U -125
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total