sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIN 3 / SEA 4
MINMinnesota Twins51%
SEASeattle Mariners49%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterConnor PrielippConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
SEAHome starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
MIN51%ML +142
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
SEA49%ML -170

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.6 pts

Model has MIN at 50.8% but market has SEA at 60.8%—a 10pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Gilbert's 3.44 ERA over 125.7 IP is solid; Prielipp's 4.73 ERA in 72.3 IP is exploitable. T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor suppresses runs systematically. Model total of 7.83 vs market 7.0 ignores the extreme park discount. Side with market on SEA, lean under on total.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -129 betrivers / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +107 betonlineag / U -125 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 6.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%over
O 6.554%under
O 7.540%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+142 / -170MIN / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total