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SFG 3 / SEA 6
SFGSan Francisco Giants42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterRobbie RayConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260713_auto
SEAHome starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
SFG42%ML +166
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA58%ML -196

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.6 pts

Market implies 61.9% SEA, model has 58.3%—market is more confident than model. Gilbert (3.32 ERA) and Ray (3.38 ERA) qualify as ace matchup at T-Mobile (PF 0.855). Model total of 8.76 is 1.26 runs over market 7.5; extreme park argues model is systematically overweighting offense here. Under is the cleaner play.

extreme parkace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Robbie RaySFG starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 fanduel / U -125 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.525%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -115 bovada / U +105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%over
O 8.522%over
O 9.514%over
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+166 / -196SFG / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+107)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -117 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total