MLB / mlb / live
CIN 4 / SEA 2CINCincinnati Reds45%
SEASeattle Mariners55%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase BurnsConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
SEAHome starterLuis CastilloConfirmed
CIN45%ML +100
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SEA55%ML -118
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Chase BurnsCIN starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -157 betrivers / U +140 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Luis CastilloSEA starter / homeThin data
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -118CIN / SEA moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -107 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total