sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

TOR 0 / SEA 11
TORToronto Blue Jays42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterShane BieberConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
SEAHome starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
TOR42%ML +138
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -164

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.9 pts

SEA at T-Mobile (PF 0.855) with Gilbert (3.42 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 100 IP) against Bieber who has pitched only 9.0 IP this season (6.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP). Bieber's small sample makes his line unreliable but Gilbert is a quality anchor in an extreme pitcher park. Model has SEA 57.7%, market implies 59.3%—close enough. Total model at 8.7 vs market 7.5 feels high given park factor; lean under.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane BieberTOR starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 betonlineag / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 fanatics / U +128 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+138 / -164TOR / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total