sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

BOS 6 / SEA 2
BOSBoston Red Sox45%
SEASeattle Mariners55%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterRanger SuarezProbable
Model pickSEA moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
SEAHome starterBryce MillerProbable
BOS45%ML -103
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
SEA55%ML -115

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.2 pts

Model has total at 8.83 vs market 6.5—a 2.3-run gap that screams structural miss. T-Mobile (PF 0.855) with ace matchup (Miller 1.54 ERA, Suarez 3.21 ERA) should push under, not 8.83. Miller's 35 IP sample is thin but elite peripherals (0.71 WHIP, 9.26 K/9) are real. Market at 53.9% SEA vs model 55.5% is close; no moneyline comparison. Strong under lean on total given park + aces.

total far from marketextreme parkace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -150 bovada / U +128 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Bryce MillerSEA starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betrivers / U -125 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-103 / -115BOS / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -118 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total