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BAL 0 / SEA 3
BALBaltimore Orioles43%
SEASeattle Mariners57%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterShane BazConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline57%Model 20260616_auto
SEAHome starterBryan WooConfirmed
BAL43%ML +113
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
SEA57%ML -134

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.0 pts

Model at 57.0% vs market 57.0% on SEA is dead-on convergence. T-Mobile Park factor 0.855 is extreme pitcher-friendly, model total 8.94 runs vs market 7.5 is a massive 1.44-run gap. Model ignoring park on total; lean under. Neither pitcher elite (Woo 4.28 ERA, Baz 4.06 ERA) but park suppresses offense hard.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 draftkings / U -106 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Bryan WooSEA starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +110 fanduel / U -120 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+113 / -134BAL / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total